The stock market is hovering around breakeven this morning. This is after a rather large move down last week. Volatility is increasing and looking at the event risk one can see why.
The event risk at home could not be higher right now. Congress, who cannot agree on anything, seem to agree that Trump has to go. They have 2 committees going, a special counsel, and now talks of censure, impeachment, and removal by article 25.
In addition, remarkably, this is occurring when the Republicans control the House, Senate, and the Presidency. If someone was looking in from the outside they would be scratching their heads.
However, if they knew anything about the inhabitants of the planet earth nothing would be unusual at all. It is business as usual for the human race:)
Congress comes back soon and I am sure they are working hard while on vacation to figure out healthcare, tax cuts, infrastructure and the wall! Or perhaps they are spending all their time scheming on how to undermine the white house. My guess is on the 2nd.
Then we have military exercises with S. Korea today. N.Korea again talking about a strike against the U.S.
Finally again in the U.S., we have violence increasing across the country. From tearing down statutes to physical confrontations at rallies across the country.
Keep a watch on Trump’s rally in Arizona tomorrow evening. Watch to see what the turnout is and also see if there is any trouble.
A low turnout or a breakout of violence tomorrow night will not bode well for the markets when they open Wednesday morning.
Whew:) A lot for the markets to consider this week. And I am sure there are a few surprises in store.
But on the bright side, the markets are very oversold right now. They are due for a bounce here. So it’s a tug of war between mean reversion and reality. Should be interesting to see how things play out this week.
I have a small mean reversion trade on that is taking a beating. I have many candidates to add to my mean reversion trades but am taking this very conservative at this point.
Today I will be watching to see what breadth looks like early and then make some decisions on trading.
Some reading I think you would enjoy this morning:
On a final note if you’re looking for the political odds section I have moved that to the sports betting posts. I typically post there late morning or early afternoon.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today