The markets are slightly lower 30 min before the open with QQQ leading the way to the downside.
Of note, TLT off >.5%, Oil, metals, financials all positive.
My take an upside bias to start the trading day despite the gap lower on the open.
On a short-term basis, the market is neutral, medium-term neutral to lower.
Going back a few months it is obvious my prediction of a drop after the first week or so of may has not developed. We are almost starting July and the market has continued to rally.
Divergences are plentiful and the potential for a market moving news story is at an extreme high now.
You have the special counsel continuing to hire Democrats who for the most part are associated in one way or another with Clinton or the foundation. I doubt very much this was a random event.
Also, you have a strange silence from the AG office on the hiring of potentially political biased attorneys. Not one word on the issue from Sessions or his 2nd in command.
Congress, on the other hand, has shifted gears it seems to bring Lynch, Obama and his team, FBI(McCabe and Comey) along with other issues.
Whether this is for show to wait out the revelations from the special counsel office to support a Trump impeachment proceeding in the House or a real investigation remains to be seen. Perhaps it is something in between.
Sort of like hedging your portfolio in the stock market. Who knows? There are so many crosscurrents it would make your head spin trying to follow the logic on any 1 of these issues let alone a dozen or so.
On top of this Project Veritas has released an undercover tape regarding CNN and the Russia collusion story. It is worth taking a look at as it will most likely precipitate some market moving events quickly.
I wonder if this will finally wake Sessions up from his unusual focus on Marijuana:) Nice to have your priorities straight when you’re the leading law enforcement officer in the country. My guess is Trump would like to have his AG decision to make all over again.
The entire point of the above discussion is to point out the volatility to come thanks to our out of control political process and its participants. My guess is it is only going to get worse for the next 6 months.
The potential for 300+ down days has increased dramatically.
I am flat and only interested right now in short term swings. And even then mostly day trades as opposed to holding anything overnight. Event risk seems much too high for me at this point.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
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