The markets are hovering around even an hour or so before the open with the Health Care Bill up in the air.
Of note, UUP, TLT, and Oil are strong while financials and metals are weak.
A neutral to slightly negative bias premarket.
We are heading into the end of September now, which in normal times means that I would be looking to position long around mid-October for the “best months of the year” trade.
This year, however, the markets did not have its sell in may weakness but went straight up.
So what is one to do when the markets are not acting the way you expect? I will still look to position myself long, however, it will not be at the levels I typically trade.
My timing this year is going to hinge on when the Nasdaq begins leading again on a weekly basis. Right now the Nasdaq is trailing the SP500.
For this type of trade using the Nasdaq as a signal seems pretty good to me.
Things were pretty quiet on the home and world front comparatively speaking that is.
The NFL has taken center stage. While N.Korea is at the front on the international scene.
Also, we have health care going down the tubes this week in the Senate. I suspect the markets will react when the handwriting is on the wall. Although, biotech might get a boost from the failure of the bill.
It is rare to see politicians exposed so clearly as on the health care bill. Republicans ran on getting rid of the ACA and voted to eliminate it many times the last 8 years. But when they finally have a President that will sign the bill, the Republicans fold on the issue.
They refuse to even get a health care bill to committee so amendments can be made and something hammered out. Most people would be embarrassed, but not politicians. Not one word of an apology to their constituents. But of course, the special interests and wherever else they get their money are smiling.
Things have got to change in DC. If they do not, then the country will change. And its still up in the air what direction that will be.
So far the markets are not concerned, except for a 200 to 300 pt down day occasionally. If tax cuts go the way of health care bill I suspect the markets will not ignore that. My guess is that tax cuts might have the same fate. There are very strong forces against the President’s agenda regardless of the benefit to the Country.
For today I will be looking to try to get long some QQQ. I have had quite a few positive signals to get long on the Close Friday. I am thinking perhaps options as the way to trade it, but might also just trade the ETF.
I will post if I take the trade this morning.
I am long UUP and IBB for similar trades. I will be making more of these going forward. It’s an area I have neglected the last year or so. Most likely as a result of my increase in the hours spent handicapping sports. It has consumed me lately.
Saying that it has had very positive results, as I was 7-3 heading into week 3 in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and now with 4-0 on Sunday have a record of 11-3 with Arizona +3 tonight to make it 5-0. That should put me up in the top 50 of the contest after 3 weeks. A fast start considering 2000 entrants. Tough to break out with that many. We will see:)
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks