The stock market is off a bit this morning, however, financials are strong as is oil. My guess is we have a good chance at an intraday rally today. Baring any news of course and that is a big if:)
Never dull is about all you can say right now. Just when the stock market seemed poised to start off the week with a big Monday gain the news hit that the White House would announce at 11:00 AM PST what it plans to do with the Iran deal.
And the market plunged about 150 points in 5 min.
That’s the nature of this market right now. If you knew the news before it hit you could make out like a bandit! And I am confident some are. But myself, I am with most, guessing and attempting to decipher from what I see.
As to the Iran deal, it is not clear to me what the White House is going to do. I have not seen any odds posted on it but if I were to make a line this morning I would say 3 to 2 in favor of an ending of the agreement with Iran.
How the market will react is another story. The reaction from yesterday I do not think should be dispositive on being predictive if the Iran deal is discarded.
Reactions like that are typically kneejerk. On the other hand, if the Iran deal stays in place I would expect a nice rally from that news. There are a lot of business’ that stand to profit from business with Iran. Not only the EU but many U.S. business’ have put there dealing with Iran on hold until this is resolved.
As far as whether it should be discarded that is not the purpose of this site and I will leave that for foreign policy experts to work out.
Then, of course, we learn the Schneiderman, one of Trump’s most vocal opponents in the legal area has resigned.
That too many by surprise, not perhaps the allegations, but that it happened so quickly.
That is the environment we are living in right now. Its a cutthroat political environment and whoever decides to enter the arena is opening themselves up to destruction. Just look at Dr. Ronny Jackson.
No one is safe, including anyone sitting in the White House. Its a take no prisoners atmosphere at all costs. Anything is justifiable, the ends justify the means.
In this environment, you are going to see more and more of this. And whenever it involves someone close to the White House or the financial markets you are going to see reactions.
Combine this with the idea that the seasonal environment for the stock market has past. In addition, the easy fed money is long gone there will be tough sledding for the markets as I see it. At least until we head into mid-October.
But then you have the November Midterms. I do not see the market settling down until after the November Midterms.
That my take. Take it for what it is. One opinion among many. I assure you there are opinions that support any preconceived belief you have on the market going forward.
Today I am watching and most likely not doing anything. Mean reversion is off for now until we get a pullback. We came close to catching a few trades but the drop was just shy of where I wanted to enter the last few times.
Good Luck Trading today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks