I mentioned it last week but again the biggest risk to the stock market now as I see it is the events unfolding in Turkey. So far the market has not even given Turkey a passing glance. But this NATO country is rapidly being transformed before the World’s eyes. Its is rapidly becoming a time bomb. You have the U.S. air force base there with strategic Nukes. You also have several incidents where people in the base were denied the right to leave. Power was cut off to the base for several days during the coup attempt. Demonstrations are held daily now outside the base with chants of death to America.
And this is from a strategic Nato country! If things turn south in Turkey the market will crash like a rock. And it will be sheer panic. That’s the potential events in Turkey have on the market. Just this morning Germany prevented a live stream from Erdogan to be broadcast in Germany. Erdogan is also trying to sell that the U.S. is behind the coup attempt. Again keep in mind this is a strategic Nato country.
In any event keep a close eye on the events unfolding as now it’s the immediate risk to this bull market short-term.
Now if you take Turkey out of the equation this consolidation we are having in the stock market is very bullish. And it seems we are almost at the point where a breakout to the upside is imminent. Now it’s not all one side for the bull case as sentiment is still a bit frothy. Ideally, more consolidation or even a pullback from here in the stock market would be healthy. But the world just will not let the markets break. The Fed has now all pretty much agreed that low rates are here to stay for a long time. Which leads you to wonder what they were smoking 5 months ago with their 3 to 5 rate hike this year. Very weird to say the least.
I am long the market and am looking to get longer. My plan is to milk as much out of this market on the long side as I can. Unless geopolitical events derail this market, liquidity should propel it up and away. But I will be watching Turkey very closely. It looks like The market is behind the curve on the potential blow-up.
You can follow some of my trades on @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed. In addition, I usually make some market observations shortly after the open.
As I write this and hour or so before the open the stock market is slightly higher after being up substantially in the overnight market.
I have been asked about when I am going to post #6 of my free trading site list. I have hit a snag on the list as there are some sites out there that are good but the constant up selling in my mind makes them unattractive. The top 5 sites have found a balance between promoting products and educating traders where the balance definitely favors education. But I am working on it. I take these lists very seriously as I wish to make your learning curve in the markets easier than what mine has been over the years.
Finally, its Aug 1st and that means the NFL is rapidly approaching. If you have not looked at the Football special I now have for football plays this season it’s time to take a serious look at it. It’s most likely the best value you will get anywhere for football handicapping this season. And if you have any doubt just take a look at my record in football all shown on this page! So sign up now and take advantage of a great offer. Also, pass it on to a friend that bets sports. It would be very much appreciated. That’s my humble opinion:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks