Will Wray be confirmed as FBI head this week? What affect will his failed confirmation have on the markets?

Markets are hovering around even to slightly lower. Of note, Oil strong, metals up, financials weak.

Not very clear at all this morning. Typically the Monday after options expiration tends to have a positive bias but with the market overbought not enough to trade.

I have one stock on my radar today that I might trade. ROP. It is the only setup right now I might go with. There are a few more things I need to do which might yield some other results.

So, I am still in a cautious mode with the market overbought. A down day today, however, would set the market up for a run to new highs. I do not think the reality is going to sink in just yet. But, we are approaching a reality check.

I suspect the chaos in DC is only going to get worse. We are seeing a lull but it will be short lived with a special counsel in the wings.

So expect a lot of volatility soon.

I took a look at the political odds and sure enough, Wray confirmation now is 2/1 against! You recall several weeks ago I wrote a piece on why taking 4/1 on Wray not being confirmed was a good wager. I also made the comment that it would be a good test of my delusional index:)  Oftentimes in politics, the delusional index can be very high. So good to have a check like this.

What better check than taking a look at political odds and making an estimation of where the value is.

So, several weeks later and with 1  week left in the wager, the odds have gone from 4/1 in favor of Wray to be the next head of the FBI to 2/1 against.

What is also remarkable about this is the Senate committee was unanimous in their recommendation of Wray. Not only that Feinstein indicated he had her vote for confirmation.!

So with all that what is the doubt? As I explained the status quo could not be better for the Democrats and never Trumpers. A Democrat is acting head of the FBI, and Sessions has recused himself from all matters Russia related, leaving the 2nd in command at DOJ to call the shots. And the first shot he called was a special counsel.

At this point, I think you still have a lot of equity laying the 2/1 that Wray will not be confirmed.

This is just another indication of how broken DC is. At some point, there will be a breaking point. The never Trumper Republicans do not even hide their desire to remove the President. So much for Democracy in the U.S.

Once the markets face reality head on, I suspect it will not be very pretty. The trick will be to be out before the carnage starts. And that is a trick that most will not be able to handle.

Be very careful in the markets, event risk keeps escalating daily.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

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