Will Yellen do it or not???

11:40 Update

Wednesday was a busy day with 5 plays and 3 setups. We went 2-3 on our plays winning our NBA play on Utah +1.5 , spliting our NHL plays with a win on San jose +125 and losing with Nashville -110, and finally losing both our college hoop plays. So when the smoke cleared we were down a little less then 1 unit for the day. Our setups in college hoops split and we had a setup in the NHL that lost.

Today a busy day that should result in several plays. I will post shortly before game times.

I have been asked about the difference between a play and a setup. The plays are the games I wager on as I feel they have a sold ev edge. The setups I feel have an edge but not enough to wager on. They should be used with your own handicapping techniques if your doing that.

Also I was pleasantly surprised to receive the following email yesterday:

“Hi Rick , I have been following you for 12 years. I have been handicapping for over 40 years. I finally decided to join up. Thank you for all of those years . My opinion is that the nba is the hardest to handicap and the easiest to me is football especially college . I could talk to you all day about handicapping, but I just wanted to tell you that I have been going against the public and taking home underdogs for years. Thanks again for all your hard work. You are the first handicapper I have followed for years and you are always above the 55 percent mark .”

Its great to get these type of messages from time to time!

Good Luck Tonight


The market is guessing this morning that Yellen’s testimony before Congress today and tomorrow is going to be dovish. The market 45 min before the open is up .75%. Myself I am not as confident that we are going to see a 180 with Yellen and she will all of a sudden go into free money mode. The best I think we can hope for is she will be noncommittal. If she goes hawkish then look out below.

In addition we have Fed Gov Williams to add clarity to everything at 10:30.

This is not the backdrop to be overloaded in. I have on two mean reversion trades and that is it. I doubt I will be adding to them today and if we get a monster rally off something Yellen says I am going to evaluate the trades at the end of the session.

Its really wishful thinking to come to the conclusion we have turned the corner. There is one indicator I think needs to trigger before you an even consider that possibility and that is the nasdaq leading the sp500 on a weekly basis. That indicator crossed down the 1st of the year and has not come close to a reversal so far this year. In addition the degree of lag is getting greater. So that is something we all should keep track of. Its about as good a timing signal as there is for short term reversals.

Now just so you do not get taken by surprise Yellen has already shown her hand and has indicated the risks are inflation related to growth! She certainly did not waste any time. No sugar coating. No calming the markets. One really has to wonder what is motivating this Fed. But rather then rehash my observations on the Fed lets just wait and see what the markets do. So far her testimony has not effected them which is a good sign.

For those of you that have been away from my site for a few days I have made the stock service non subscription. So my private feed is available to anyone that has an interest in following what I do in the markets. Just go to @rickjswings and follow and I will get you signed on. Also if anyone has any questions regarding my trading just send me an email.

I have been making some other changes to the site. So little by little you will see a new look to the site with much of the outdated content changed and links to services that might interest you added. I plan on adding some investment sites I believe are worth taking a look at also. Like I said little by little.

If there are any other changes that anyone has an interest in please let me know.

Good Luck Trading today

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: Rickjswings
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

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