What will Yellen do today and what will she do about the Fed’s massive balance sheet?

Markets are hovering around the unchanged mark 30 min before the open.

Of note, Oil is positive, while most other things I look at are unchanged.

So a neutral open, heading into the Fed statement this morning. All expectations are for the Fed to keep interest rates the same with an announcement to lighten up the Fed’s balance sheet.

This has implications on rates as the Fed has been supporting the financial markets buying U.S. debt. What pressure this will put on rates remains to be seen.

My impression is sooner or later the Yellen fed is going to throw the economy into a recession. I am not of course 100% positive about this but I think it is more likely than not ( a legal term):)

It is interesting that the jawboning of the Fed governors has stopped on a dime a few months ago. From daily speeches to almost none. A welcome change.

At home, we have the health care bill out of the Senate. The odds? This is a tough one. I would put it at 50 50. A tossup. Which is much closer than I would of put it a month ago.

Another indicator is the Alabama special election between an establishment McConnell republican and a non-establishment republican. I put the odds 4 to 1 in favor of Moore. Whats interesting is there will be some big names in Alabama this weekend stumping for both candidates.

Gorka and Palin will be there for Moore and Trump will be there for Strange. And it is strange as Trump ran on anti-establishment. You would think Moore would be his pick.

As Trump said, ” Politics is a tough endeavor”. Most likely an understatement in this political environment.

As far as the international scene, Trump spoke at the U.N.  Depending on what your political beliefs are will most likely affect how you felt about his speech. At least that is the way the pundits on Cable have approached.

Almost without exception the praises and pans have come along party lines. Except of course the die-hard never Trumpers in the Republican party panning also.

For the markets, the good thing is it looks like the Republicans are finally trying to govern between the time they are trying to bring down the White House.

That is a positive shift for the markets. As if they do get on board with Health Care, Tax Cuts, infrastructure, it’s smooth sailing for the markets.

It’s something to keep a watch on. If Moore wins easily it should be a wake-up call and a further kick in the ass to get the Republicans moving in that direction.

As in DC, the biggest motivator is reelection!

I am still in day trade mode and most likely will be until mid-october.

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