Another busy day on Thursday for sports betting with 5 plays and 1 Big Move Game.
We had two 1 unit plays in MLB with the Dodgers -145 winning 7-3 and Houston -114 winning 7-6.
We also had 2 half unit plays with the Angels +140 losing 0-4 and Atlanta under 9-113 losing 9-4.
Finally, we had a half unit play on Boston +10 in the NBA that never had a chance as they lost by 30!
We started out yesterday with 3-big line move games but two were postponed. The one that remained was a winner and also moved our way off the line.
Today so far I have sent out 2 plays along with 3 big move games.
Let me digress a bit on these Big Move Games. I am not betting them but at this point it is something you might wish to consider.
We have had 173 “Big Line Move Games” through almost 2 months of MLB. The record on these if you were betting them would be 97-79 for +10.99 units. That is a 5.5% ROI.
These do not consider Public % nor do they consider variables. To date however incorporating variables and public % leaves us at -10.035 units. So for plays we are running 20 units behind the big move games.
It is still very early to draw any significant conclusions but for next season if this holds up I will be placing much more weight on these. I am tempted to do that now but from my experience the time to make adjustments is the end of the season, not 2 months into it.
If your doing your own handicapping however the combination of value and predictive line moves should be invaluable to you.
For instance if you come up with a game and it coincides with a big line move game you would want to jump on it. On the other hand if the Big line move is on the other side you might want to throw the game out.
That would be just one way to use these to your advantage. Like I said, having an indicator like this is invaluble to a handicapper.
As to the plays we are off about 10 units in MLB for the season. That is nothing in the scheme of things. Not even a blip on the variance chart. Last season went very much as this season has gone and we ended up 13 units.
My comment was that with the new filter I felt the liklihood of a better season than last was reasonable. I still stand by that:)
As long as your disciplined in your betting approach you will be fine. If your a plunger or get impatient and diverge from the rules than you might as will give up the ghost now and save some money.
Without control, perspective, and realistic expectations you have no chance at succeeeding in sports betting. Not little chance but no chance!!!
A RickJ Given for you this morning.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
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