Tuesday was a repeat of Monday with a large gap up. Breath extremely positive but after the 1st hour of trading the market reversed to the downside.
I had no trades yesterday as I had anticipated a repeat of Monday. There were a number of trades that triggered for me and it was tempting but usually when I feel there is a strong headwind on these trades I take a pass, usually:)
Today again its looking like another gap up although a bit smaller this time in the neighborhood of .25%. We are off a bit from the Overnight highs but not by much.
Today is Fed day which to me means not to take any positions until after the fed announces. My exception to that is if we are at extremes going into the announcement. But we have had essentially two flat day combined with strong opens and strong reversals.
My guess today is that I have no idea!!! We have the seasonal weakness, market consolidating, sentiment toward the bearish side, Fed announcement, Bank of Japan not easing, and rioting in North Carolina.
That adds up to me not change my strategy and wait until after the fed announcement. I have said many times I do not think they will hike today. That if they do hike it will be after the elections. I stand by that but with this Fed its much harder to predict. They are a loose cannon in my judgment:)
Overall however my opinion is that any further pullbacks can be traded to the long side. That is how I am going to play it. Ideally we get a washout to the downside after the Fed announcement which would set that trade up. But the markets what they are I doubt nothing will be that clear cut.
I am long CORN for a medium to long term swing. We were close to the stop point at the close on Friday. Tuesday however resulted in almost a 1% gain in CORN so we have some breathing room now on the trade. As I said I really like these types of trades. But they do not come along that often.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
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