Tuesday we went 2-0 on our 1/2 unit plays. Our NHL with Montreal +120 won 4-3 and our NBA play with Washington +13.5 won 94-102. Tonight looks like another night similar to last night with a few 1/2 unit plays. Although there is a game in the NBA where if things stay the same as they are now would be a 1 unit play. We will see.
Baseball is right around the corner. If anyone has any questions regarding how the 130.00 Guarantee works just send me an email. Baseball starts 4/4 and I am looking forward to opening day. Will be a nice change of pace.
What’s interesting is that each sport has a different feel for handicapping. Each one is unique with separate handicapping techniques. In addition, the public numbers while relevant in all sports are different for each one. Thresholds are different along with the significance of line moves in relationship to the public betting. Then to make it even more interesting this can shift a bit each year. Challenging to say the least. However considering 95% or more sports bettors lose money it is the only method I know that has the chance of producing winning years every year. Some years are leaner than others and some sports do now always show a profit in one year. But typically when you add everything up this method tends to produce positive EV.
It will be very interesting, to say the least, to see if my adjustments in MLB have the same result as they have had in the NHL.
I was sent an email a few days ago as to what to expect in the way of units won over the course of a year. Let me start out by saying this is gambling and with variance involved and the ever changing dynamics there are never any guarantees. Except of course my 130.00 one in baseball:) But a reasonable year is 25 to 40 unit gain. That would the range I would expect in any given year. You are going to have years outside that range but for the most part that should cover it.
Since I turned into a subscription service we are +12 units in college hoops, +8.5 units in the NHL, and +1 unit in the NBA. So we are on track for a normal year. Of course going into march college hoops was looking quite a bit better but after 264 wagers it is hard to imagine no drawdown. Even I was thinking maybe not this year:) But no such luck.
If anyone has any questions regarding the above please send me an email.
Good Luck Tonight
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
It’s a rare day that a trading game plan works out as well as it did yesterday. So when it does happen enjoy it as the markets more often then not test your ego and resolve.
Today we are getting some follow through with a gap up of around 1/2%. This puts the market back into overbought territory and swing trades on gap ups of over 1/2% are a very tough endeavor but adding to it an overbought market makes it even more difficult. Saying that the market just opened and $ADD is +1500. Not a number I want to try a gap fill with. So we are in no mans land right now. But if the +1500 holds for the first 15 min of trading the odds of a gap and go increase dramatically.
I exited most of my positions before the close yesterday taking my profits(Thank You, Janet)!
We are back to reality this morning however with Fed Evans and others saying exactly the opposite of what Yellen said yesterday. Just what we need, a Fed that is as out of control as the federal government. Not a pretty picture.
My goal today is to look for one trade that setups up perfectly for a day trade. I have my eyes on UPS for a day trade so let’s see how that develops! And as I am writing this it triggered. But I have a very tight stop on the trade.
Baseball is only 5 days away. Amazing how time flies. If you have any interest in wagering on baseball this season then takes a look at my $130.00 back guarantee. You will not find that anywhere else. The only reason I am offering it is to show my confidence in the adjustments I have made to my baseball handicapping routine. If it turns out I have to pay a lot of money out 9/1 you will not hear me whine one bit. Except of course that it will mean I had a losing 5 months in baseball. We will see:)
One other issue that has come up that I would like some feedback on from subscribers.
@Rickjsportplays has changed a bit from being an informative channel to primarily promotional. The exception to that is that I announce updates to the site. Myself if I were a follower to @rickjsportplays and a subscriber to rick_sports I would not be very keen on getting all the promotional tweets. So my question is to solve that to send out notice of updates to my site also on @rick_sports. Then you can choose not to follow the other twitter account and not miss anything. If you have an opinion regarding this just send me an email and I can get a feel for the best approach to take.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks