Several interesting games in the NFL today:
Betting is 58% on the road dog with the line moving from -10.5+106 to -10.5 +103. My models point to Seattle and my variables strongly point to San Fran. Public betting slightly favors Seattle. I would be considering San Fran if the public betting were on Seattle. But the public is all over San Fran which is a red flag the way I handicap. Whenever you have the public breaking with its favorite bias you have to be wary of the dog:) That is why I stayed away from the game completely in the Hilton contest. I am passing on the game and if your considering going with the herd on San Fran you might want to reconsider!!!
Betting is 79% on the road favorite with the line moving from -5.5-105 to -4-105. This is the highest public game today and yet there is a very big reverse line move on the game. My models are split on the game and variables are absent. Public betting strongly favors Buffalo here. Again I avoided the game completely today with no variables and models split. However if your considering Arizona it might be best to take a pass on the game. Just a suggestion:)
Good Luck today which ever side you take!!!
Its been awhile since I wrote about bad days. I was hoping never to have to discuss them again! But when your gambling every day like we are this is what you sign up for. There is always the bad with the good if your a gambler. In more intelligent terms variance can strike at any time to the downside or the upside. You should be mentally prepared for both.
Myself I go to bed early so I was not tortured by the last quarter of the California game. But it was a fitting end to a miserable day. We got the full treatment.
So when the smoke cleared yesterday we had 6 one unit plays and went 0-6. Five of the plays were in College football, California, San Jose State, North Carolina, Georgia and S. Florida. In MLB we had Tampa Bay a loser.
The first 4 games of the day never had a chance but it was looking like Tampa ahead 3-2 going into the top of the 7th had its chances. But with bases loaded and two outs…a Grand Slam finished us off. Then we came to California. We had an easy cover with less than a min left but an onside kick was returned for a touchdown with 30 seconds left to give a 0 win day:(
If the day had you on tilt California would have been a back breaker. I have plenty of those over the years until I figured out how to wager and approach these games.
So what do you do after an 0-6 day in sports betting. First you take stock to see what your metal condition is. If your upset, mad or steaming. Take a week off or even 2 weeks. This is supposed to be a fun endeavor through wins and loses. If after a week or two your still upset you need more time off to evaluate whether this is for you.
There are very few people that are mentally equipped to handle the ups and downs of gambling every day. Its not for everyone. Those of you that have been with me from the start of MLB know exactly what I am talking about. And you are being rewarded with +8 units in MLB so far. A tough fought +8 units.
Myself days like yesterday do not faze me one bit although I do feel a tinge that people that are following me have lost money. For myself its a blip in the grand scheme of things. 0-6 on the scale of bad runs does not even get past the bottom 20% of what bad runs are. Try 0-15 with AA23 in Omaha 8 or try being on the other side of a Fezzik streak where he won the Hilton NFL Contest 2 years in a row. Talk about variance. I do not even want to think what the opposite side of that would be in gambling!
OK enough of this. Time to move on to the NFL today.
Let me start by saying this week in the NFL was not an easy one for my handicapping. Nothing, not one game stood out as clear cut play. So keep that in mind this week.
Hilton NFL Contest Picks in the order I like them at the time:
Last week the Hilton Top 5 went winless!!!
This week the Hilton top 5 :
The Bottom 5 this week:
My plays fade one of the top 5 and are with 2 of the bottom 5. Rams overlaps as being on both
% numbers this morning for the NFL:
San Fran 59
New Orleans 58
Green Bay 57
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks