Let me start out by pasting what I told my subscribers a little over a month ago:
“I have not looked at the lines lately. I think Masters and Laxalt are reasonable wagers. Forget colorado. And the Republicans controlling the senate:) Their latest brainstorm of going for a national ban on abortions after 15 wks less than 2 months before the primary indicates to me they are doing everything they can to stay in the minority
Quite a strategy to make war on the base and come out with this proposal
So, I would not bet a dime on the Republicans taking control of the Senate
State races are a bit different. And as we have seen, even though establishment Republicans in DC are doing everything they can to destroy the Trump candidates, they are still winning primaries. And I assure you they will do everything in their power to assure they lose the general
Until McConnell and the gang are gone, things are going to go from bad to worse
Thats my take anyway
To come out publicly and say they oppose a pardon for jan 6th, is the kiss of death for them with the base
I have never seen a bigger bunch of losers in my life
So, it comes down to how can you bet on these guys
They are trying to lose
And most likely will get the job done
Masters however is a much better wager than laxalt
I think Arizona is going very red this year
Nevada however I doubt it
And Pa not much chance for republicans there
Colorado forget about any republican winning
Same with Washington
The only thing Pa has going for a republican victory is who is running. I cannot think of a worse candidate. But then again, Oz is no gem either. But compared to his opposition he is a much better candidate. The problem is it Pa. And it would be hard to bet on Oz.
I think the better wager is laying the odds on Rubio in Fla. People are starting to actually believe he is in trouble:)
If you can lay 4 to 1 its a gift
Getting almost 2 to 1 on Masters looks like a great wager
The one that looks weird to me is Murkowski being a 87/13 favorite
Even with ranked voting, I cannot imagine that being the correct line. But its so far off what my thinking is, it is probably right:)
The best bet is walker in Ga right now. You can get a small price, and actually I do not see how he can lose
That is my biggest wager right now
The Senate is now 63/39 in favor of the Dems. And that appears about right to me, if not a little low. As I said, the republicans are trying to stay in the minority
McConnell has been one of the most destructive GOP leaders ever to sit in the Senate
To sum it up, Masters in AZ and Walker in Ga are the two best, and Lake laying 6 to 4 is right behind those two as a very good wager for gov of Az
If you do not mind laying 9 to 1 DeSantis is as close to a cinch as you will get in Fla
Odd should be 50 to 1″
”
There seems to be a lot of wagers this year with postive ev
I still think the best right now is Walker in Ga
You are getting 6 to 4 on a race that should be at least 6 to 4 the other way
And if you do not mind laying a big price. Desantis at 9 to 1 is a virtual cinch.
Not even the person I make personal bets with would take 9 to 1
The one I do not understand is Murkowski. This ranked voting in Alaska is very tilted toward the incumbent
But even so her being over a 3 to 1 favorite I find amazing
It will be interesting:)
I am staying away from that one
The Pa Senate race is another I am staying away from
I view it a toss up, and any surprises would go to Oz. Line is 55 /45 against Oz.
House is 85/15 to go Republican. Seems about right
Senate is a tossup. And that seems about right also
But you can get 41/59 on a Republican house and Democrat senate. that seems to have value, as 50/50 goes to the Dem side. The odds appear to be off on this one if the House and Senate odds are anywhere near correct”
For the most part all of my reccomendations went my way to where the odds are very heavy on the positions I suggested a number of months ago.
But where do we stand now:)
Lets take a look at the lines and see where the value might still be. A Caveat however: Biden has come out twice now and indicated that votes will be coming in after election day that will in effect give the Dems wins in many of these races. I tend to not discount statements like this, especially as Silver has now said the House may well go to the Dems. This is so far out of the mainstream one has to wonder what information Silver is privy to. Narcissist’s that he is, if he is privy to some information , he would be the one to disclose something to make him look smarter then he is:)
So you need to factor that into the equation against the idea that early voting has gone substantially to the Republicans and the turnout for Dems is way down. So its a tough one to balance out. But one thing is certain, there will be chaos one election day and days after. It will not be a cut and dried process. So I would not bet a lot of money either way on the elections. Too many uncertainties and unknown variables that need to be considered.
But looking at the numbers based upon what I consider accurate polling, here is how I see things unfolding.
The Republicans will be winning most races by a very large margin heading late into election night. Most of these leads will seem insurmountable. That would be a great time to lay off your wagers and take a profit, as I did when I wagered on Trump in 2020. That way you do not have to expose yourself to the uncertainty of the days after election day.
If you are wagering on Predictit.com you can lay off your wagers. If however you are using other off shore books you most likely will not have that opportunity as the spreads are pretty wide. And if your wagering privately then it all depends on who the other person is.
So in short the strategy should be to wager on Republicans, but then lay off the wagers when you have a nice profit based upon the returns as they come in.
When the line was Walker a large dog in Ga, I had always thought Walker was the best bet on the card. He is a very popular figure in Ga, and the media trashing him has worked in his favor, increasing his donations substantially. Since then the line has now moved to 63/41 in Walker’s favor. I still think there is room to make money on this wager, but again, I would be looking to lay it off after day of voting returns. My guess is the line may well move as high as 2 to 1. At that point I would be laying the wager off:)
Control of the Senate is now 74/29 in favor of the Republicans. I do not see any equity in this one, and you likely will not have much of an opportunity to lay anything off. So I consider this one a pass.
Any wager that favors the Republican by over 70/30 should be passed if you are wagering on the Republicans side.
The only exception to that would be Florida. At 9 to 1 DeSantis is a gift. He is virtually 100% to win. But laying 9 to 1 is not everyone’s cup of tea:)
Nevada Senate race is 76/23 Republican and the Nevada Gov race is 78/18 Republican. I live in Nevada, and if you want some live longshots, take the Dem on both of these. I do not see either race being that big, and could well believe the Dems winning both. Of course , this will occur days after election day:)
Wisconsin Governor is 69/31 Republican. This is a big number you could lay with the idea of laying it off when it hits 90 to 10. Early numbers should send this to at least that level.
Az Governor’s race has Lake 79/22. No room there. this is a clear pass
If you give any validity to Biden’s comments all Dems are live dogs:) Myself, I think the better strategy is the layoff strategy based upon early and day of returns.
The Az Senate race is 55/48 Republican. It is hard to imagine Lake being a 4 to 1 favorite and the Senate race is barely over 50/50. But, This one is a perfect example of taking the Republican with a lot of room to lay it off election night. This one and Walker are probably the two best wagers for the layoff strategy.
NH has the senate race 60/40 in favor of the Dems. I think you could easily wager on the republican here using the layoff strategy. I doubt the Republican is going to win this one, so be sure and lay if off!
The race that mystifies me is Murkowski a 4 to 1 favorite in Alaska. Virtually every Trump impeachment voter was defeated soundly, but Murkowski who is not very popular in Alaska is a solid favorite. No doubt it has something to do with ranked choice voting. But the line is so far away from my expectations I am staying completely away from this wager.
So the strategy is pretty simple at this point. Most of my wagers were made over a month ago before the lines had moved. So I am in good shape if I decide to adapt this strategy.
As always I welcome any comments or questions.
RickJ
Rickjs Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds
