2022 Midterm political odds update

Let me start out by pasting what I told my subscribers a little over a month ago:

The Republicans will be winning most races by a very large margin heading late into election night. Most of these leads will seem insurmountable. That would be a great time to lay off your wagers and take a profit, as I did when I wagered on Trump in 2020. That way you do not have to expose yourself to the uncertainty of the days after election day.

If you are wagering on Predictit.com you can lay off your wagers. If however you are using other off shore books you most likely will not have that opportunity as the spreads are pretty wide. And if your wagering privately then it all depends on who the other person is.

So in short the strategy should be to wager on Republicans, but then lay off the wagers when you have a nice profit based upon the returns as they come in.

When the line was Walker a large dog in Ga, I had always thought Walker was the best bet on the card.  He is a very popular figure in Ga, and the media trashing him has worked in his favor, increasing his donations substantially. Since then the line has now moved to 63/41 in Walker’s favor.  I still think there is room to make money on  this wager, but again, I would be looking to lay it off after day of voting returns. My guess is the line may well move as high as 2 to 1.  At that point I would be laying the wager off:)

Control of the Senate is now 74/29 in favor of the Republicans. I do not see any equity in this one, and you likely will not have much of an opportunity to lay anything off. So I consider this one a pass.

Any wager that favors the Republican by over 70/30 should be passed if you are wagering on the Republicans side.
The only exception to that would be Florida.  At 9 to 1 DeSantis is a gift. He is virtually 100% to win. But laying 9 to 1 is not everyone’s cup of tea:)
Nevada Senate race is 76/23 Republican and the Nevada Gov race is 78/18 Republican.  I live in Nevada, and if you want some live longshots, take the Dem on both of these. I do not see either race being that big, and could well believe the Dems winning both.   Of course , this will occur days after election day:)
Wisconsin Governor is 69/31 Republican.  This is a big number you could lay with the idea of laying it off when it hits 90 to 10.  Early numbers should send this to at least that level.
Az Governor’s race has Lake 79/22. No room there. this is a clear pass
If you give any validity to Biden’s comments all Dems are live dogs:)   Myself, I think the better strategy is the layoff strategy based upon early and day of returns.
The Az Senate race is 55/48 Republican. It is hard to imagine Lake being a 4 to 1 favorite and the Senate race is barely over 50/50.  But, This one is a perfect example of taking the Republican with a lot of room to lay it off election night.     This one and Walker are probably the two best wagers for the layoff strategy.
NH has the senate race 60/40 in favor of the Dems. I think you could easily wager on the republican here using the layoff strategy.  I doubt the Republican is going to win this one, so be sure and lay if off!
The race that mystifies me is Murkowski a 4 to 1 favorite in Alaska. Virtually every Trump impeachment voter was defeated soundly, but Murkowski who is not very popular in Alaska is a solid favorite. No doubt it has something to do with ranked choice voting. But the line is so far away from my expectations I am staying completely away from this wager.
So the strategy is pretty simple at this point. Most of my wagers were made over a month ago before the lines had moved. So I am in good shape if I decide to adapt this strategy.
As always I welcome any comments or questions.
RickJ
Rickjs Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

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