One game tonight in the NFL:
Betting is 64% on the Home Favorite with the line moving from -3-117 to -2.5-113. Most books have moved back to -3. My models are neutral, Variables favor Atlanta and public betting slightly favors Atlanta. I have Atlanta +3 in the Hilton Supercontest. I need them tonight to have a 4-1 weekend for my contest picks. I am sitting at 9-5 going into tonights game. As far as betting the game I do not see any edge strong enough to take Atlanta. Actually for me its not even close to a play. So I am passing on the game.
The bright spot of the weekend was the NFL where both my 1 unit plays covered easily with the Rams +3.5 winning 37-32 and Washington +3.5 winning 29.27. We also had a 1/2 unit play on Under in the Washington game that never had a chance.
My Hilton Supercontest picks are 3-1 for the weekend with Atlanta left for this evening. I was 6-4 going into this week so am now 9-5. Off to a good start for me as usually after week 3 in the contest I am hovering around 50%. So a fast start for me which could bode well if I get my typical massive mid season run. We will see.
In college football this weekend it was an 0-5 weekend. 4 of the games were not close and the fifth was one if your prone to violence you might of put your fist through a wall:)
We also had a 1 unit play in MLB on Sunday with St louis +155 losing 1-3.
Finally we had 3 big move games on Sunday:
Tampa Bay +113
Tampa Bay +113
Two games moved big our way with the 3rd staying the same. These have been about as predictive as you can get for line moves.
Today so far I have sent out no plays but have sent out 3 big move games. In addition I have Atlanta as my fifth pick in the Hilton Super Contest going.
So we have stumbled a bit in college football but the NFL has stayed solid with a 2-0 weekend bringing my NFL record to 5-2 on sides.
Its interesting to see how the line moves toward the “sharps” are not only getting more pronounced but are also moving earlier than last year. So if your a contrarian you need to adjust your timing on your entries. I will be looking to put plays out much earlier than I have been to take advantage of the lines before the books start adjusting based upon the sharp action.
We have almost come full circle now where the public hardly moves the lines at all. Even with numbers like Arizona at 77% and Tampa at 74% the lines moved contrary to the betting. The days in the NFL where you could count on the public to move the lines substantially are officially gone:(
I most likely will have an update on tonights NFL game later this afternoon.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks