We are heading into week 13 of the Westgate NFL Contest and I sit at 33-27 or 55%. Last week I went 3-2 and I started out this weekend with a loss on Atlanta +7 Thursday night.
In college football, we went 4-2 for the weekend bringing our season to date record to 31-21-1 or a solid 59.61%.
In the NFL for plays last week we went 2-2 bring our season to date record to 13-14. This includes the Thursday night game.
My picks in the Westgate NFL Supercontest this week are:
Atlanta +7 (L)
Not a good week for picks and my best Atlanta has already gone down:(
The Westgate Top 5 last week went 4-1 bringing its season to date record to 30-28-2.
The Westgate top 5 this week are:
I am fading 2 or the top 5 and not with any of them. That is how I like it:)
The bottom 5 this week are:
I am on one of the bottom five and it has already lost.
November is now over and we find ourselves +7.65 Units for the month. It was an interesting month with the Standout being the NBA where we picked up 11.8 UNITS helped by a new wager I have this season, first half sides. so far they were 8-1 in November:) The disappointing sport this month was college hoops where we lost 7.3 units hurt by the sides that went 1-8:( What was a solid setup was dismal in November. Also, the college totals which typically are solid in November we went 5-5 for -.5 units.
I expect things to pick up in college hoops. In sports betting things do not always run true to form as you know, especially those that have been with me for over 15 years now:) Time flys and I can say I am among the few sports handicapping that can show a nice profit handicapping sports every day for 15 years.
I attribute the reason for being that I am always looking for new edges. Overnight sides in MLB was a real winning addition. And now we have the first half sides in the NBA.
College football is always solid, and the NFL is always solid, except this season we are slightly below break-even.
All you can do is keep plugging away: If I ever find myself where I do not think I have an edge anymore I will hang it up. So far I am a long way from that. I enjoy the mental exercise of handicapping as its one of the toughest endeavors you will find. I assure you well over 90% of the sports bettors lose money betting sports. That number is probably a bit low. So it takes research, patience, good respect for variance and good money management to stay in the game.
Now, let’s take a look at the political odds:
This is something new for me. I took an interest in it when I found that the lines were created primarily by public opinion as opposed to reality. I say that as the lines more often than not reflect polling (not internal polling) and it’s my opinion that these polls are mostly worthless. Like everything else, they have become politicized and used as a tool rather than an accurate representation of what reality is. Combine that with the idea that many bettors use the polls and the media as a guide to for an opinion on a wager and the end result is value…..not a little value but in many instances more than you will ever find in sports betting.
I started out with political betting at the poker tables where I would make political wagers with the players. After winning almost every wager, I found it difficult to find any more takers:) So I left it alone for a while, but now political wagering is becoming mainstream, with line put out at many books. In addition, there are sites like predictit.org where they have lines on almost everything. Now there are some sharp bettors on the site but for the most part, what you get is what you find at the poker tables:) So I am back in the game.
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 43/57 -4 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 78/22 – 2 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 14/86 +1 Pt (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 85/15 +4 Pts (Another one to watch) A new high
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 44/56 + 2 Pts
Warren: 10/90 – 4 Pts
Biden: 14/76 No Change
Buttigieg 13/86 No Change
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 7/93 -1 Pt
Clinton 4/97 No Change
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 31/69 -9 Pts I laid 38/62
I planned on selling This wager with a 10% to 20% gain after the IG report hits or the Durham report hits. That should send this higher. But the media is pounding Rudy so it looks like I will be in this one longer then I expected. I still think this is an excellent wager getting almost 5 to 2 at this point.
There will be a lot happening between now and Dec 9th when the IG report hits. The spin will be 24/7, most if not all will be misleading or false. The House will be back in session this week with both the Schiff and Nadler pressing full speed ahead. Then Dec 9th the IG report and Dec 11th Horowitz will testify in the Senate. That may well be a game-changer. We will see:)
Then of course there is Durham, the silent prosecutor who now has a grand jury.
It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the middle stages of the NFL and College football with college hoops just beginning. In addition, the NBA first-half wagers have been on fire, something like a 6-0 run:) All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!
Good Luck Today:)