Saturday in sports betting we had two plays and a setup in MLB. Our 1 unit play was on Baltimore +143 and it lost 4-11. We had a 1/2 unit play on the Dodgers +150 and it won 9-1 with Maeda pitching 5 innings of 2 hit ball. Their middle and relief then gave up 1 hit the rest of the day! Also we had a setup on Boston +116 losing in a wild game 9-10. Boston was in the lead 8-4 going into the bottom of the 8th but giving up 4 and then 2 in the last two innings did them in.
One interesting thing to note is the Dodger was a game I put out very early in the morning yesterday and the line ended up moving from +150 to +130. This is happening quite often on overnight and early morning games I put out as plays. I would think that the knowledge of a game having the potential for a bit move and a middle might have some value so whenever I see that I am now sending those out the night before or early morning when they are obvious. They are not labeled as plays but merely games that have a potential for a big move.
I have sent out a 1/2 unit play early this morning and am now scouring the card for value:) Lets see if I can come up with anything later today.
I have received quite a bit of emails from my post concerning College Hoop Totals. The gist of what I have been asked is in detail the technique I used and also whether its still a viable strategy.
I have a bit of time right now so let me go through it in a bit more detail. Below are the parameters of what is needed to execute this strategy come next season.
A College Hoop Total Strategy that might still work!!!
1. You have to have access to the Pinnacle sports book or you might check to see if presently there is a different book that puts out the totals earlier. I found when I was doing this however that the lines were only off on pinnacle.
2. You need to have access to models that give you an idea where the total should be on the game. The model does not have to be spot on but merely give you an idea of where the total should be. If you do not have models yourself Pomeroy will be fine for this limited strategy only.
3. You need to be ready to execute bets within seconds after the release of the lines. That is going to require some structure in place to not only compare the total with the model but also then execute the wager. You will only have seconds and there will be games you will not be able to get down on so its important to move on to the next game fast.
4. The timing of the release of the totals varies each day. In addition the number of games typically are released 5 to 10 at a time.
5. You will need total concentration during this time. No distractions as its going to be hard enough to do this with no distractions.
5. During a 100 game schedule there were maybe 10 to 20 games you could take advantage of this with.
6. The difference I used was 10 pts or more from the models total.
7. If you wish to minimize against variance you can simply play middles as often you will find yourself with a 10 to 20 point middle on these games.
I quite doing it because on these totals the limits on the opening line were very small. Only about 100 to 200 a game. In addition there was a lot of competition. You might click on the send wager button 10 seconds after the line came out only to get a “line changed” message. But if you can come away with 3 to 5 plays a day you have done a great job on this.
Now also let me say I do not know whether this exists anymore. I have not looked at if since I quit doing it several years ago. Also I mentioned yesterday my speculation as to why this was being done. It certainly was not because Pinnacle did not know what the total should be!
So there you have it. A method if it still exists that require no handicapping at all. Let me know what you think of it. Also if you have any questions please ask.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks