Another poker email

Another response:

“If anything, 2000 hours at 20 hands / hr is a very conservative estimate for the sample size necssary to extrapolate long term winrate. Ive had 40k hand brakeven stretches in games that I have beaten for 3ptbb/100 over a million+ hands”

I agree 100%. I should of said a minimum of 2000 hrs and then only an indication of what your win rate might be:)

Of course your example I can guess is most likely online , multiple tables and no limit. Just a guess. For limit poker you do not have the big win or big loss in one hand.

This response is just an indication of the number of hands required before taking variance out of the equation completely in determining your ev.

Rick
“Rick,
Thanks for responding to my email regarding the 8-16 Omaha 8 game at the Venetian. But I have to tell you there are several regulars in the game that agree with me and have told me they are easily taking 2 big bets per hour out of the game. I really think perhaps your not thinking right on this although I really respect your views?”

Well……let me see how I can respond to this diplomatically:)

First any comments I make are merely my opinions. They are based primarily on my 10 years of playing full time in Vegas with the bulk of the time playing Omaha 8. Along with what I consider to be an above average analytical ability. My limit range over the 10 years has been 8-16 up to 100-200. On several occasions I have stepped up a bit above 100-200 but its been very rare.

Now….I will state unequivocally that in the long haul there is not an Omaha 8 player alive, dead, or to be born that can pull 2 big bets per hour out of the 8-16 Omaha 8 game with a 4$ rake in the long run. And with almost equal certainty a big bet an hour. The profit is just not there.

How do you then reconcile the statements of the poker players with my statement? Well…I am certainly not calling any poker players liars. But….embellishing and exaggeration is a common characteristic of many (not all) poker players. Its so common that I cannot call it something negative…its really just part of the package:)

As I have said before…If the casino kept track of everyone’s winnings and loses and posted them in a spreadsheet for all the players to view….there would be many players just not showing up out of embarrassment and then game would be very silent!

Another great example …about 2 years ago…when the 30-60 Omaha 8 game at the Bellagio was still going strong a no limit player that I know well and have the greatest respect for as a person and player came up to me and mentioned a conversation with a regular in the game where the regular said he was pulling 140,000 a year out of the game. He was surprised since he didn’t think there was that kind of money to be won in the game and wanted my opinion. ( He played in the game from time to time before his no limit seat opened up).

I explained to him that the person was about 160,000 off! This person at the time was a negative ev player.

In any event….the only way to determine what your particular earn rate is….put in the hours…spreadsheet all your plays…and when you get to around 2,000 hours you will have a good indication of your win rate.

RickJ

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  • Ming
    Reply

    If anything, 2000 hours at 20 hands / hr is a very conservative estimate for the sample size necssary to extrapolate long term winrate. Ive had 40k hand brakeven stretches in games that I have beaten for 3ptbb/100 over a million+ hands

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