One NFL Game tonight
Betting is 65% on Oakland with the line moving from -4.5 to -3.5. Variables are neutral on the game. Models are also neutral on the game. I see no edge at all tonight on either side. This game is a pass for me.
One bowl game early today:
Betting is 53% on the Favorite with the line moving from -8.5 to -7. Variables are neutral on the game and models favor Boise St. With the betting split about even on the game I see very little edge on either side of the game. This is a clear cut pass for me. The only thing it has going for it are the models but its only a slight difference.
Good luck which ever side you pick. I will be passing.
Tuesday our two day slump was broken in a big way….9-1 for +9.65 Units. Bowl play on Toledo +2.5 was am easy winner. College hoops went 4-0 split between the side and totals. The nba game won easily with the Lakers. And in the NHL they went 3-1 with the only loser for the day losing in a shootout! So close to 10-0!
You never know what each is going to bring that is why the best approach is to use a methodical 2% of your bankroll set aside for handicapping and take all the guess work out of your bet sizing. Why make things more difficult then they already are.
Another full slate of games today. For subscribers plays are usually posted 1 to 10 min before game time. If your on the fence give us a try. The cost compared to other services is small and in addition I doubt you will find a service as consistently profitable as this service. In addition I am around for opinions through out the day as part of your subscription.
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The last two days have certainly shown the effect of positive seasonality. And this morning is no different up about 1/3% 30 min before the open. We are getting short term over bought but in this environment I would not be very concerned. Not only that if we get a one day drop it most likely will be a buying opportunity.
Let me also say I am in a very good mood this morning going 9-1 on my sports plays. I will detail the results in a later post.
I am long a portfolio of stocks and also have some mean reversion trades on. I am hoping beyond hope the fed gives us a Christmas present by not opening their mouth for the rest of the year. Is that too much to ask for! Most likely it is.
I will be looking for more swing trades especially with a one day pullback or consolidation. If we do not get it then I am content riding out the seasonality. However all bets are off after the first of the year. I know they say sell in May…but might be prudent to jump ship a bit earlier this year. Just a thought:)
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