To say that things are picking up is an understatement Yesterday we had 21 plays thanks to a new method I have introduced for 1/2 unit plays.
I have been stalking this for over a year now and have decided to put it in action. Rarely have I seen a method that back-tests as successful as this one in sports betting, especially when you combine it with other methods I use.
So Wedn was my first day giving these plays out to subscribers and to give you an idea how we did on them:
NBA Sides 2-2
NBA Totals 3-1
NHL Sides 3-1 +1.065 units (1/2 unit)
NCAA FB sides 2-0
That is really how these have been doing the last year that I have been tracking them. I typically do not put out plays unless 1. they have back-tested very well and have also been good real time for a year or a substantial number of plays. 2. I bet them myself.
Those are the two requirements for sending out plays. So we went 10-4 for the first day for 2.915 units
Note that in college football the two plays were NC St +13 and Detroit +13. Both won the game outright!
A caveat on these. Things can turn south very fast in sports betting. So, take these results with a grain of salt and a healthy skepticism. Again, as I have said many times, there is no gravy train in sports betting. I have been doing this far too long so please heed my words.
Saying that, if your disciplined in your bankroll sizing and bet sizing you can comfortably play these as your risk is only 1.5 to 3% of your bankroll size. Now since we are putting out multiple games that overlap in time, if your using the 2 or 3 percent rule than you need to reduce the size of your wagers a bit. I do not have any hard and fast formula for that but It should be considered.
For instance, if your a 3% of your bankroll bettor and we put out 10 plays that overlap and go 0-10 you have lost 30% of your bankroll. You do not want to expose yourself to that. Now this only applies insituations where I send out multiple plays at the same time.
Also I have been asked to give a few more details on these new plays.
My method becomes a play when it coincides with the public % number. Then it qualifies as a 1/2 unit play. The public % needs to be <45%. The public % is an absolute filter. No exceptions.
Now when it also matches up with the models and/or the variables it becomes a stronger play, but I am keeping it at 1/2 unit regardless for this year.
I have been asked to post when either Variables or Models agree and I will do that. Perhaps with a 1/2 unit + designation. That would mean its more than just the public % that agrees with it.
The 1 unti totals continue to struggle going 3-3 thanks to Purdue heading into OT.
We also had a 1 unit play in college hoops. And it lost on Arkansas State.
This is a little long winded this morning but most of you that are not familiar with me might have thought I was tilting yesterday:) As I used to tell the poker plays my tilt fact is maybe once a year, but tilt to me is playing A4510 in a ten handed Omaha 8 game. I just do not tilt anymore. We may have draw-downs but it will not be because I am tilting!
So lets see how these continue Today will be a light day with a few college hoop game and 3 NFL games. After yesterday I can use a break!
If anyone has any questions I am usually available on Skype. My user name there is riccja.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Skype: riccja
