MLB Overnights for 5/16, Premarket comments , HOA Dysfunction

Below are the Overnight Sides I sent out to subscribers :

953PIT J JONES -R123
954 J STEELE -L
961OAK J ESTES -R180
962 C JAVIER -R

I send the Overnight sides out via email, discord and slack usually around midnight. Sometimes earlier. With the change in databases the updated stats I use to detect EV in the opening numbers is not as early as the previous database I had been using. In addition, the times are not consistent. That results in having to get up around midnight and send these out.

So far we are hovering around even this season with the new database. My thoughts are at this point that when the smoke clears, we will end up around +10 to 15 units on these. The key is the numbers I put out showing that we are beating the closing line well over 60% of time by an average of .04.  Not as good as previous years, but as long as this is positive the expectation is the net result will be positive at the end of the season.

Along with my plays during the year I also post market commentary on my other discord Channel RickJInvest

This is free to the sports side subscribers who also have an interest in trading. Not only do I post many of my trades, but also on some days my thoughts prior to the market open.

Here is what I posted this morning:

When they say strange things happen in the markets during presidential election years, they are understating it:)
We have gone from high inflation , raising rates, to no inflation and now rates will be heading down by the Fed soon, and the 10 year note is falling like a rock:)
The CPI number was below expectations yesterday, so now on a dime everything is fine!
See how that goes, its may and in 6 months elections roll around that will shape the course of this country
And as importantly will shape policy of countries around the world
If you think for a 2nd that monetary policy is independent and divorced from this process I have a bridge to sell you:)
The only thing that surprises me is that it took as long as it has for the narrative to shift. They really cut it close this time around.
Am I a cynic, perhaps, am I delusional , most likely not, but I will say this I am right more often then I am wrong. That is all one can hope to accomplish in all decision making endeavors.
So the chart of TNX tells a pretty story if your looking to buy a home or for that matter sell a home. Which as it turns out is me:)

I have never encountered the difficulty I have been having this time around in my many real estate endeavors.
The lessons to be learned are this: 1. Never ever buy into a 55+ community 2. Never buy into a new development. The problem is the developer keeps control of everything for a very long time to their advantage. The control the board, they control property management and they control all the vendors.
And even when you have transition they still control select board members who have bought into their agenda, and property management remains in their pocket.
Now this can be a good thing or a bad thing. Or sometime neutral. As sometimes homeowners and the developers interests are the same. But more often the conflict. And when they do, guess who wins out, the developer. They control almost every aspect of the community.
The board members that relate to the developer, and help them even after transition are doing it either because of “the Stockholm syndrome, or out of the misguided thought they are doing the right thing. Or perhaps other reasons. But if things turn sideways, the homeowners can be in a very bad spot.
So rather then take that chance, buy into an established community with a track record of fairness to homeowners. Otherwise you are in for some sleep less nights.

I will be writing a book on this subject once I move out of the community I am in and sell my home here. The community on its surface looks like a retirement haven:) But, underneath you have dysfunction on top of dysfunction. A mini animal farm:)
Since it is a rather small community you have residents who tend to fall into two groups. And they fight each other often. The stories I have to tell are comical and tragic. But in the end since I never take life too seriously the book and hopefully the screen play will be very entertaining.
As am example I received a notice to appear before the board. That was it. Of course the bylaws and law require specificity with notices like that. This is not a totalitarian system, where at their whim a board can demand a resident to just show up.

The issue of the day had been a long drawn out fight on the issue of spraying synthetic herbicides and pesticides in a 55+ community. Another homeowner and myself lead the discussion on this issue by writing a series of 7 communications to the board, all respectful, informative, annotated with the position that it was not the right way to go in a 55+ community. You can see our emails in RickJSports as a guide for those in a similar situation.
As a former trial attorney I am well trained both in researching these types of issues and presenting compelling arguments.
I have tried as the lead trial attorney cases ranging from Federal mail fraud cases, murder cases, complex products liability and complex medical negligence cases in front of a jury.
So this issue was a simple one, as the trend is around the world to go with safer alternatives. It is one that in front of a reasonable thinking audience we would have persuaded them. But not this time:)
To shorten this up, the end result is I am moving out in 7 to 10 days, and paying an extra 4000 a month just to be out of here until my home sells. And I will end up taking a loss for one of the first times in my life on the sale of this home.

What happened to me is an outlier in the standpoint of the extreme reaction our emails got from the board. No logic can explain the reaction, but one day when the smoke clears here and I am free to discuss everything. I will start my book. As I know what the reasons are and what is occurring in the powers to be in this community.
At least for a few of them.
Do back to the chart:)
I celebrate this as this means to me and many others that the process of selling and buying a home will be a bit easier , at least until November. After November all bets are off.

 

Here is the converse chart of TNX , right at the top end of the upper channel, and if the open stands we will be breaking through that easily this morning!
FVE and VFi are both green, the question is how far does this move take us. The 30 yr mortgage rate is now well below 7%. With a point now you can probably get close to 6%.If TNX happens to make 4.0 these markets will be making new highs for awhile.
This could well happen as the two leading drivers of the inflation numbers have rolled over also, just like magic:)

Here is the converse chart of TNX , right at the top end of the upper channel, and if the open stands we will be breaking through that easily this morning!
FVE and VFi are both green, the question is how far does this move take us. The 30 yr mortgage rate is now well below 7%. With a point now you can probably get close to 6%.If TNX happens to make 4.0 these markets will be making new highs for awhile.
This could well happen as the two leading drivers of the inflation numbers have rolled over also, just like magic:)

 

 

As most of you know who have been following me from my sports handicapping side, I tend to be a contrarian.
What could be more contrarian then to fade the public who are sticking their money now into money market funds
Eventually this money will find its way into the markets, but if history is a guide it will be close to the top:)

I usually do not digress into personal areas, but, in this case it is illustrative of how the rate changes can effect real life situations. And for some might give some guidance on how HOA living can go sideways if you do not do your homework:)

All this and more is free until the beginning of football season. Then we are back to subscribers only. If you want to take advantage of this free offer, just email me at rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com and I will get you on the email list, and discord channels.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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