Its been 3 months now since the beginning of the MLB season.
As most of you know who have been following me, MLB has been a long journey toward finding a methodology that consistently produces a positive EV.
I began this journey as most handicappers do handicapping the games the day of the game looking for overlays. I used similar techniches as I have
successfully used in the NFL, College football and College hoops.
But, regardless of how I massaged my techniques to fit into the long grueling MLB season, results were break even at best.
But then I switched gears and starting handicapping games the night before when the opening lines are introduced to the public. That is when
things changed for us. As since I started using that approach, Overnight plays on sides has been solid. Both as to units won, but also as to variance.
As most of you also know I pay very close attention to variance. I like to follow the top to bottom swings monthly as I feel that gives the best picture
as to the stability of the methodology and also a good indicator of how much pain a bettor has to endure betting the games every day.
The change of gears has been so successful , that I have decided that is the only handicapping I will be doing going forward in MLB.
Last season for Overnight Sides we produced a +16.5 unit gain for the season. Top to bottom swing was around 25 units, which was
weighted to the + side.
This season is on par to do much better. So lets look at the season to date results and then I will go through with you what I feel
is significant.
From any perspective this has been a very successful 3 months.
Now where we end up remains to be seen this season. MLB is not for everyone as I have said over and over. It is a grind. But as we are
seeing a profitable grind. And that as a handicapper is the goal. Excitement, thrills, big swings, is not something bettors should strive for.
A steady method, that if you use appropriate bet sizing, produces stress free profits is a winning method. That is what this is looking
like the more time that goes by.
For those that are thinking about joining us for the 2nd half of the season there are a few things to keep in mind.
1. You want to have at least two outs. The more the better.
2. You want to have outs that put out their lines the day before. That should not be hard as more and more books are doing that now
3. While you will not be able to find 10c lines on Overnight lines, 20c is acceptable. Day of game wagers only 10c lines are acceptable.
4. Betting methods should be setting aside an amount that if you lose everything it will not cause you any concern, and then wager
1.5 to 2 % of that sum for each wager. But remember the higher the % the bigger the swings. 3% is not a number you should consider.
In addition it would be hard to find fault with a 1% bet sizing method. But you will find 2% can get uncomfortable at times.
5. When you quit having fun doing this, its time to take a break:) Handicapping sports is supposed to be an entertaining and
fun endeavor. When it ceases to become that, consider stopping.
I am going to stick to this method for the 2nd half of the season. My plays are sent out usually between 4 to 6 PST the day before
the scheduled games. I send them out via email and also via my slack channels. This has worked out well and I cannot remember
a time in the last year we have had difficulty getting the plays out.
The cost of a subscription is a mere 49.00 a month. There is no long term commitment. The subscription entitles you to get all
plays on every sport I handicap.
In addition it gives you access to my stock trading section on Slack. This also is not for everyone. But if you trade stocks and options
you will find that section not only educational, but also, trades that produce positive EV since I have been posting them.
Typically I start the day on some days with some premarket comments, and what to look for in the way of news, both domestic and
international that has the potential to be market moving events. I also give my opinions as to what I expect (but I will tell you that predicting
news and the effects on the markets is not a precise science). A lot of what appears to be random and illogical reactions occur quite
frequently.
But studying the markets is a fun endeavor for me and helps keep my mind sharp. It is challenging and the twists and turns occur weekly:)
If you want to join us for the 2nd half of MLB, just send me an email for questions or you can sign up on my web site:
rickjshandicappingpicks.com.
On the page that pops up on your screen there will be a PayPal button that will let you subscribe. Usually I will have you up and running within
an hour of signup.
I have been doing this online now for over 20 years:) I am happy to say I have subscribers who have been with me from day 1.
All of my subscribers were obtained by word of mouth. I do no advertising and very little promotion of the site. So if you join
you will be among a very select number of subscribers, as many are not aware my site exists.
Good Luck
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
