NFL Season to date subscriber plays and contest picks, A 2022 Analysis and what to expect in 2023. All Posted

2022 Season
Wk 1      3-0
Wk 2      2-0
Wk 3      2-1
Wk 4      1-1-1
Wk 5      3-0
Wk 6      2-1
Wk 7      1-0
Wk 8       1-1
Wk 9       1-0
Wk 10    2-1
Wk 11    1-0
Wk 12    2-0
Wk 13   1-0
Wk 14    1-0
Wk 15    1-1
Wk 16    0-1

Combined Side Plays       24-7-1  77.41%

PIck 5 contest:

Wk 1       4-1
Wk 2       4-1
Wk 3       3-2
Wk 4       1-2-2
Wk 5       4-1
Wk 6       3-2
Wk 7       4-1
Wk 8       3-2
Wk 9       2-2-1
Wk 10     4-1
Wk 11     2-3
Wk  12     2-3
Wk 13      2-3
Wk 14     4-1
Wk 15      3-2
Wk 16      4-1

Combined Side Plays     49-28-3   63.63%

All spread picks contest:

Wk 1          10-6
Wk 2           10-6
Wk 3            8-8
Wk 4            6-10
Wk 5           10-6
Wk 6            8 -6
Wk 7           9-5
Wk 8           9-6
Wk 9            6-7
Wk 10         9-5
Wk 11         9-5
Wk 12         9-7
Wk 13         7-8
Wk 14        8-5
Wk 15       10-6
Wk 16       8-7

Combined  All spread picks 136-103   56.90%

Rolling along in the top 5 contest with a 4-1 week. Of course the one I lost was a play:(  

But 63.63% is a great number. 

Would I have gotten that number in the Westgate Contest?  No.  My ability to change my picks on Sunday morning is worth  about 3 to 5 wins I would not have had in the Westgate.  But I still might have  cashed this year.

The contest I am in has thousands of entrants. I sit at tied for 48th  with  two weeks left. They pay the top 10,  My score there is 50.5. 10th is 53, while 1st is 57. With  two weeks left I have a shot at the top 10 if I can keep up the 4-1 pace. In the All spread contest I sit all by myself in 4th place. at 136-103.  First is 141, Second 140 and 3rd 137.

There   are 127 entrants in this contest. Considering you pick every game against the spread 1st is  obtainable with a  solid run the last two weeks.

Now, These results are substantially better then the past years. 

I attribute that  to a change I have made in my handicapping methods on all sports.  My  models have become better then they have ever been by a long way.

In addition, I have added several more variables to my bag of tricks. They come into play quite often in the NFL.  Other sports not so much. Not only do these flag games to pick, but they also exclude games to stay away from. 

That is why     you are seeing so few picks in the other sports. 

But I assure you I am handicapping every game in every  sport, even the NHL.

There is not supposed to be a lot of picks.  But my purpose is at the end of the year to have a plus year. And each year I improve on the year before with my methods.

Since day 1 the NFL has always been the easiest for me to handicap. The volume is  crazy high, the public goes all in on these games, so no where is the public tracks more visible and reliable. 

When you go to the other sports, typically you do not have the volume to work with. Nor the high public interest.

But that does not mean you cannot find a way to profit.

For instance, next season, in MLB, we will stick to overnight sides.

The totals let us down this season , so I am going to take another look at them. But the overnight sides have been profitable since I introduced them.

With a little tweaking we  had a banner year last season producing something like +16.4 units. 

Not many  handicappers can do that in MLB. 

We found our niche:)

In college hoops I expect a winning year. Not many plays, but right now we are  + around  4.5 Units.  I will bring that up to date today

In the NBA  we are at 2-0        +2 Units. 

This reflects my  additional variables and models. A lot less plays

In the NHL we have not had a play yet.  Like baseball the day of the game plays tend to be break even at best. You have to get a jump on the money line with overnight plays in these money line games. I am working on that this season, 

I expect to roll that out soon. 

That is my breakdown as we approach year end. 

My goal for 2023 is to pick up 40+ units for the year.  Lets see how close I get:)

Wish you all a great New Year!


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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