Observations re: wager an entire season of MLB

I view the MLB as a test of how far you have come around to being a solid gambler:)  There is nothing like 5 months of wagering on baseball every day to test how far long you have come to be a success gambler.  Most gamblers go into their routine of acting like losing is not one of the potential outcomes:)

Unless you are playing with loaded dice, and are wagering on events that have a small edge, variance will always come into play.

MLB is the best testing grounds to see if you are up for the challenge. Based upon my experience most gamblers not only are not up for the challenge, some do not know that a challenge even exists.

So you have the psychological test, the money management test, the education of becoming one with variance (embrace the uncertainty)

As there is no way I know of to wager eliminating all risk. Sure you can do a few things to lower variance, but only a small amount.

The way to wager eliminates some of the risks. First, you set aside a pool of money that if things go sideways and you lose it all, it will only be an intellectual exercise rather then panic time.

2nd. Once you get your bankroll established, you then set a % number for bet sizing. So if you have a bankroll of 20,000 and  you assess your risk tolerance and pick 1% as the wagering amount. You would then wager \$200.00 a game. That means your bankroll will fluctuate as well your betting amount.

1% is a reasonable number to use. The higher the % the greater the variance, and chances of losing it all. I have tried 3% and even for me the swings were too large. 2% still has very high swings, 1 or 1.5 % are both good numbers for you to consider.

Most people that wager, have no method, but only wager an amount based upon how they feel about the game itself, and in some instances increase the size of their wager to get even (plunging)

If you cannot harness that desire, you cannot begin to think about wagering on anything.

I will also go as far to say, if you do not have a set betting method, or feel it is too much trouble, then do not even begin this journey. As I will tell you, you can be the very best handicapper and if you do not get a handle on the above, you have a very high chance of going broke.
Wagering to me is a game in and of itself. So the way I approach is from a game theory standpoint. And I have a rule that I do not wager unless I feel I have the best of it. (I have always said I do not need to have the best of it, but I do need to think I have the best of it)

I did not always approach things that way, years ago before I decided to get rid of my bad habits, I did about everything most gamblers did.  However I am an analytical type, and eventually I worked out what works for me to harness my bad habits. Sure I have slipped from time to time over the years, but the more gambling I do, the more disciplined I become.

Betting just to bet can get very expensive in the long haul. Expensive enough to remove all of your EV you have fought so hard to obtain.

I had a good friend of  mine that became very successful at some of the highest stakes poker games in the world.  Back in my college days we went together to many local games around the Univ of Ill area.  Then as time passed I lost track of him. But, when I moved to Vegas over 20 years ago, I walked into the Bellagio poker room, and heard someone yell out my name.

I looked and there he was the person I knew back in my college days. He was sitting at the 2,000/4000 table with Brunson , Reese,  and the other cast of high stakes poker players.

We went out to lunch and I asked him how does he handle variance?  At 2000/4000 limit poker, 30 big bets is \$120,000.   100 big bets \$400,000. And he was playing some of the best in the world:)

His answer amused me, “when you are as good as me, you do not need to be concerned with variance”

I always knew from the past, he had little respect for variance, but on the other hand , had one of the best minds for poker I have seen. So who knows:)

The reason I am writing this is whenever you go through a tough patch, it should be a learning experience, not a traumatic experience that you lose sleep over, get mad, or triggers a tilt factor in you.

I always approach wagering as an intellectual exercise. At the poker table I could go through 3 racks, and you would never know I was losing. This happened in an Omaha 8 game I was in. I got hand after hand, and lost every one of them. The person next to me who at the time was with 2+2  that I became friends with, looked at me and asked “when you just get up and quit for the day”?

My reply was , what is the difference if your downswing occurs in hours or months. As long as I am playing good and the game is good, my approach is to just weather the storm. I can do that because I am not superstitious, as some players are.  He of course understood what I was saying, he replied that he tends to get mad after 2 racks. so he quits at that point.

So you have to know your own limitations., and either work on them, or abide by rules you set so they do not cost you money.

I played professional poker for 20 years here in Vegas.  I played 6 days a week, for 6 to 20 hrs. at a time. I always kept detailed spreadsheets as to each game I played in broken down by game played,  the betting structure of the game,. By the time I  stopped playing, I had detailed records as to top bottom swings for each category, my net profit, and expected EV. I found out there were some games that I had no edge in, some games where the variance made it just oo tough to consider playing in them. Badugi was one of the games that I decided had too high

But other games have for me a very low variance, Omaha 8 was my game of choice. 2 to 7 triple draw another game of choice. Stud hi low, either any any or 8 or better another. I liked any any because most players had no idea the key strategies behind playing it. It plays completely different the 8 or better.

All carries over to sports betting. And MLB is the toughest grind of them all.

As a said a testing ground:)

If you wish to join us for free up to the beginning of NCAA FB, send an email to rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. I have talked previously why I am making these picks free for most of the MLB season.

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Try to join us if only for the educational posts, and conversations on discord.

RickJ

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