After a strong day on Monday, the stock market is gaping up again this morning. I suspect its optimism over new trade deals now that it appears that the U.S. has entered a good trade deal with Mexico.
This is a big thing as it’s the tariffs that are causing concern with the economic growth. Of course, so far it has not dented the White House economic boom. But the predictions are that the longer these tariffs continue the more danger they are to the economy.
I am not so sure these trade deals are going to be that easy to come by. The White House got lucky with the new President in Mexico. That is quite a break getting a reasonable president that wants to negotiate a fair deal for both sides.
Canada, China, and the E.U. are entirely different animals. The E. U. is already bad mouthing the U.S. and openly siding with Iran and Turkey. How quickly they forget about WW2. In the long run, I doubt this will turn out well for them.
Canada is going to go the way of the E.U. and China unless they see no other options is not going to get reasonable.
That is the way I see it. I am not expert on Trade but it seems that the geopolitical environment is shifting dramatically and at a fast pace.
And the reason is, its all about the money.
It seems ludicrous at this point to give a warning how this might affect the stock market, but, throw this into the multitude of red flags that exist right now.
But, for the time being, it can never be wrong to trade price. After all, price is reality. That is what I am doing right now, with also keeping in mind a quick exit strategy if and when things turn south.
Later this week I will itemize some objective things you can look at that will give you advance warning of a softening in the stock market.
They are not foolproof but they are the best there is an easy to keep track of.
All are economic related, so the political risks both home and abroad are still added to what I will list.
Some other significant news out this morning is that Trump is taking dead aim at Google and I suspect other social media companies as to their censorship of conservatives.
Congress seems to have ignored this, but the White House is taking this on head-on. I am not sure what legal remedies the White House has, especially without a DOJ, but they do have the bully pulpit whatever that will be worth. So far the social media companies have not taken a hit because of these remarks.
I am going to do some research when I have time to see what legal remedies are available if any.
For an entertaining article on the subject, that just was posted:
The Fly is always entertaining:)
We are still extremely overbought here. I expect some type of pullback any day now.
We are still long GLD as a bottom reversal trade.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
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