What are the odds of Trump being reelected in 2020? My observations and prediction

Time to review some of the political odds I have mentioned and see where they are since my posts:

On Jan. 13th the odds was 5 to 2 that Trump would finish his first term. My suggestion back then was that laying the 5 to 2 had a lot of value, and that the odds were closer to 100 to 1. Today looking at the odds they are now up to 7 to 1. I would still lay 7 to 1:)

On Feb 16th, I discussed the odds of Trump being impeached his first term. The odds at that time was 55 to 45 that he would not be impeached his first term. I suggested taking the 45 to 55 on impeachment had value. I put the odds at close to 2 to 1 he would be impeached. The odds have now moved to 7 to 1 he will not be impeached his first term. I would still take the 7 to 1. I just do not think they can hold off the base.

On  February 19th discussed the odds of McCabe being indicted by the end of the year. The odds was 2 to 1 against. I suggested taking the 2 to 1 as I felt the odds were closer to 2 to 1 in favor of indictment. This morning the odds sit at 3 to 2 against. Odds are heading down:)

Finally two weeks ago
Biden running in 2020. The odds are about 6 to 1 that Biden will run. I would take the 6 to 1. I view it as 2 to 1 at best that he will run for a variety of reasons. I went through the reasons and suggested taking the 6 to 1. This morning the odds are now down to 2 to 1. Its a closer call, but I would still take 2 to 1 that he will not run. My prediction Odds now at least 2 to 1 against.

The next odds I want to take a look at is which party wins in 2020. The odds this morning are 58 to 44 in favor of the Dems taking the White House. Now, under normal circumstances I would say take the odds knowing you have a great bet.

However, there are many variables at play that are very difficult to quantify. I say that because there are intangibles at work.

  1. Voter fraud. It is massive. And unless the White House gets it under control, a runaway election may well be close
  2. Establishment republicans sabotaging Trump’s reelection. This is a certainty. Many were involved in this coup attempt. Many are working behind the scenes to undermine Trump. They are working overtime, trying to figure out a strategy to make sure he loses in 2020.
  3. My guess is they cannot win with a primary challenge. However, I expect an independent run, backed by never Trumpers and some establishment Republicans. Before its over people like Romney will be backing the independent. Ryan also.
  4. On the plus side for Trump is Trump. He knows everything and more of what I am discussing. He is most likely the best political strategist to come along in a very long time. So, if there is a way he will find it:)
  5. So the odds, right now I put them at 2 to 1 in favor of Trump. What should be at least 20 to 1 because of the intangibles I adjust it to 2 to 1. Never underestimate the corruption that still is active in the U.S.

As always, I give the following Caveat. I am a Trump supporter. Not because of any particular ideology but because its my opinion he is the best person for the Country. I am not burdened by any particular ideology and am issue driven. So I see things a bit differently then most. More as an outsider looking into the chaos that has evolved. And as I have always said, when there is chaos there is value:)


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks


Skype : riccja

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