Time to review some of the political odds I have mentioned and see where they are since my posts:
On Jan. 13th the odds was 5 to 2 that Trump would finish his first term. My suggestion back then was that laying the 5 to 2 had a lot of value, and that the odds were closer to 100 to 1. Today looking at the odds they are now up to 7 to 1. I would still lay 7 to 1:)
On Feb 16th, I discussed the odds of Trump being impeached his first term. The odds at that time was 55 to 45 that he would not be impeached his first term. I suggested taking the 45 to 55 on impeachment
On February 19th discussed the odds of McCabe being indicted by the end of the year. The odds was 2 to 1 against. I suggested taking the 2 to 1 as I felt the odds were closer to 2 to 1 in favor of indictment. This morning the odds sit at 3 to 2 against. Odds are heading down:)
Finally two weeks ago
Biden running in 2020. The odds are about 6 to 1 that Biden will run. I would take the 6 to 1. I view it as 2 to 1 at best that he will run for a variety of reasons. I went through the reasons and suggested taking the 6 to 1. This morning the odds are now down to 2 to 1. Its a closer call, but I would still take 2 to 1 that he will not run. My prediction Odds now at least 2 to 1 against.
The next odds I want to take a look at is which party wins in 2020. The odds this morning are 58 to 44 in favor of the Dems taking the White House. Now, under normal circumstances I would say take the odds knowing you have a great bet.
However, there are many variables at play that are very difficult to quantify. I say that because there are intangibles at work.
- Voter fraud. It is massive. And unless the White House gets it under control, a runaway election may well be close
- Establishment republicans sabotaging Trump’s reelection. This is a certainty. Many were involved in this coup attempt. Many are working behind the scenes to undermine Trump. They are working overtime, trying to figure out a strategy to make sure he loses in 2020.
- My guess is they cannot win with a primary challenge. However, I expect an independent run, backed by never Trumpers and some establishment Republicans. Before its over people like Romney will be backing the independent. Ryan also.
- On the plus side for Trump is Trump. He knows everything and more of what I am discussing. He is most likely the best political strategist to come along in a very long time. So, if there is a way he will find it:)
- So the odds, right now I put them at 2 to 1 in favor of Trump. What should be at least 20 to 1 because of the intangibles I adjust it to 2 to 1. Never underestimate the corruption that still is active in the U.S.
As always, I give the following Caveat. I am a Trump supporter. Not because of any particular ideology but because its my opinion he is the best person for the Country. I am not burdened by any particular ideology and am issue driven. So I see things a bit differently then most. More as an outsider looking into the chaos that has evolved. And as I have always said, when there is chaos there is value:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype : riccja